Will air fares remain high in 2024? Here’s what experts say


The airline industry’s dramatic climb from the depths of the pandemic may be ending soon.

A review of multiple reports shows stabilization across several key metrics, as rapid growth ends and a new era of normalcy begins.

“2024 is expected to mark the end of the dramatic year-on-year increases that have been characteristic of the recovery in 2021-2023,” a December report by the International Air Transport Association said.

Global flight capacity is expected to be restored, with some 40 million flights (up from 38.9 million in 2019) projected to carry a record 4.7 billion people (up from 4.5 billion people in 2019), according to IATA.  

As leisure travel demand softens and “revenge travel” ends, supply and demand in the commercial airline industry is hitting an equilibrium, which will help stabilize airfares in 2024, according to AMEX GBT Consulting.

Airfares: what to expect in 2024

However, several other reports expect flight prices to soften.

The travel arrangements company BCD Travel expects global fares to drop next year, but just slightly — less than 1% compared to 2023 — with a more pronounced drop in airfares to and from Asia (3% for business class, nearly 4% for economy), according to its “Travel Market Report 2024 Outlook.”

“After recent rises in fares, we should expect a modest price correction in some markets in 2024, although underlying pricing should generally remain strong,” it said.

However, AMEX’s “Air Monitor 2024” is expecting only international airfares to drop in 2024 — notably for flights between North America and Asia. The report states regional fares will remain stable or slightly increase.

We should expect a modest price correction in some markets in 2024.

BCD Travel

Travel Market Report 2024 Outlook

Travelers in the U.S. may see some savings. The travel company Hopper expects fares in the U.S. to drop — at least for the first six months, according to its “2024 Travel Outlook” report.

Overall, passengers shouldn’t expect much change in 2024, says John Grant, chief analyst at the travel data company OAG.

“There will be a continuation of the status quo, with only minor fluctuations in fare prices,” he said. “Although we may see a slight shaving of fares as demand softens in the very low season, the fundamentals of a high operating costs base remain [plus] increased salaries, oil prices etc. suggest that we will not see much of a shift.”

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Outlook for 2024

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